Some of peoples in Japan argue possession of nuclear weapons as a diplomatic dispute solution.
However, the Japanese possession of nuclear weapons brings the competition of the nucleus in the East Asia and breaks the NPT system. On the other hand, possession of nuclear weapons does not become the trump for diplomatic dispute solution, and harms the strength of a nation in vain. For diplomatic dispute solution, it is to raise the quality of the agreement.
Possession of nuclear weapons is a bad move
Mr. Toshio Tamgami insists that Japan is safer if possesing nuclear weapons.
But the Japanese possession of nuclear weapons gives North Korea legitimacy of the possession of nuclear weapons. Though you may think it is North Korea to have held nuclear weapons earlier.
A similar example is south India. Opposeing to an Indian nuclear test of 1998, Pakistan made nuclear testing. Mr. Vajpayee the Indian prime minister (around that time) who ordered a nuclear test commented that there is the menace.He planned self-justification. North Korea will do the same thing, too. By this North Korean nuclear test, a nucleus possession argument happened in Korea. If Japan does possession of nuclear weapons, the confidence of success that Korea does possession of nuclear weapons of is high. Nucleus competition will be generated by Japanese possession of nuclear weapons as a start in East Asia. We must avoid this.
Next, a blow is given the NPT system . If Japan which is the only being nucleus bombed country, the country planning possession of nuclear weapons accepts legitimacy. It is Iran. Now, U.S.A. continues diplomatic effort for Iranian denuclearization. The effort of that purpose comes to naught. It is thought that an aim of the Iranian possession of nuclear weapons is to perform military aid in the Middle Eastern warlord without taking European and American pressure. Then the danger that a isturbance happens again in the Middle East rises. This is not good for Japan.
Next is American repulsion. U.S.A. wrestles for North Korea and Iranian denuclearization.
The Japaese nucleus possession gives these countries ostensible reason. U.S.A. will not think willingly. President Obama is a common sense person, but there will be some kind of protest and pressure if American national interest is lost. For example, it is that U.S.A. gives notice of reviewing the nuclear umbrella and missile defense (MD) umbrella offering to Japan. Japan does not have an early-warning satellite sensing the discharge of the ballistic missile. Japan shares information with U.S.A. Against the North Korean rocket of this year, Japanese aegis naval escort and Patriot PAC3 were deployed. These weapons do not function without the information from an early-warning satellite well, too.
The nuclear sharing does not bring nuclear deterrence
There is three unreasonableness in an opinion to do nuclear sharing of U.S.A. The new clear sharing is such a thing. For Japan and an American joint strategy, the Self-Defense Force acquires training of the nuclear attack from a time of peace. U.S.A. manages the nuclear weapon. The Self-Defense Force receives a nuclear weapon from U.S.A. if fought, and it is to perform nuclear attack. At first this conflicts with a right of collective self-defense. Next, it conflicts with NPT treaty.This treaty forbids the transfer of nuclear weapon. It become the violation of treaty at a point in time when a nuclear weapon was entrusted to the Self-Defense Force. When NPT treaty was concluded, the existence of the nuclear sharing was a secret. Finally nuclear sharing is not to get the nuclear deterrence. All the nuclear weapons which U.S.A. share of are tac-nuke. It is Russian armored forces that nuclear sharing of NATO assumes a hypothetical enemy. It is not a thing bringing the nuclear deterrence which a nuclear weapons possession debater insists.
A nuclear weapon is not a trump of negotiations with North Korea
Mr. Hideyo Kurata insists that it is fooled by North Korea because Japan does not have the nuclear weapons. However, U.S.A. with overwhelming nuclear weapons is made fun of in North Korea.
The North Korean dangerous negotiations game is unrelated whether the other country has nuclear weapons or not. If Japan with nuclear weapons is fooled by North Korea, what next do they?
The possession of nuclear weapons does not reduce the war expenditures
The claim the possession of nuclear weapons can compactify the Self-Defense Force, and become the expense saving is unreasonable. A ratio of the war expenditures to occupy in American GDP is 5.0 - 6.1% from 1950 when Korean War breaks out to 1987 when the Cold War terminates.It is outstanding to exceed 10% in 50-60 generations when cost oof Korean War and the Vietnam War and the U.S. and Russia nuclear weapons competition at most.When the Self-Defense Force holds a nuclear weapons, what kind of military unit may we reduce? The opposition structure of the Cold War is left in the East Asia. I cannot expect the effect of the defense budget reduction.
The nuclear weapon is not the trump of the diplomatic dispute solution
Some of net workers insisit that if Japan holds nuclear weapons, we can solve the return of the four northern Islands and the Chinese menace. Russia having withdrawn before an American nuclear weapons only at the time of Cuban Missile crisis of the former Soviet Union times. It is hard that return negotiations advance profitably even if Japan has American ordinary nuclear deterrence. The recent Chinese strength has a big place by the growth of the economy. It is impossible to hold it down with nuclear weapons. The claim of the nuclear armament advocate is not reinforcement of the national defense power that prepared for nuclear threat but an outlet of the dissatisfaction to that a olitician cannot solve the diplomatic dispute that Japan holds. I may call so the possession of nuclear weapons a dangerous game.
North Korean issue restarts to 15year ago
The politician cannot go against the opinion of the electorate.Therefore if the public opinion demands hard-line policy, it is realized in the democratic government. If looking from a different viewpoint, it ties up the foreign policy that the government can do. It is the aim of negotiations to raise the quality of the agreement in a certain book. It was written that another book cannot ignore the feelings by the negotiations. We may solve the problem between Japan and North Korea unless we satisfy a Japanese face and satisfy a North Korean face, and raising the quality of both agreements.
It developed that North Korea demanded service as the nuclear power from U.S.A. The North Korean nuclear test was not a diplomacy card to U.S. It dose not yet understand how North Korea considers the viewpoint of the nuclear power. I can imagine it as many as one likes. They may want to strengthen the voice in the East Asia or make it the outstanding job of the successor and may want to delete having an established reputation. A road of the North Korean denuclearization will open out if we understand it.
Secretary of State Hilary says that an arms race gets up in northeast Asia if not taking the important and am effective step.The situation does not seem to improve for the better even if I depend on a nuclear weapon.
Note;
Mr. Toshio Tamgami
He is the former Air Self-defense Official top.
He was dismissed becouse he insisted on an opinion against government opinion.
He insists on a Japanese nuclear armament and the nuclear sharing
is one of options.
Mr. Hideyo Kurata
He is former self-defense official, Ministry of Foreign Affairs bureaucrat. He insists on a Japanese nuclear armament.
Return of the four northern Islands
It is a territorial problem between Japan and Russia. Because this problem is unsolved, Japan does not link the peace treaty to Russia.
The country where Japan does not link the peace treaty is Russia and North Korea.
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